It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to address. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
