Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
